By Aldridge Dzvene
Zimbabwe’s transition into the National Development Strategy 2 (NDS2) period marks a decisive turning point for the agricultural sector, particularly tobacco, as the country moves away from a long-standing reliance on raw exports toward value addition, industrialisation and higher export earnings. The developments unfolding at the close of 2025 and into early 2026 reflect a strategy that is no longer focused on how much the country can grow, but on how much value it can retain within its borders.
A major milestone was reached in late November 2025 when President Emmerson Mnangagwa commissioned the expanded Cut Rag Processors (CRP) plant in Harare following a US$100 million investment. The facility is now the largest tobacco processing plant in Africa, with the capacity to process 12 000 cigarettes per minute and approximately three million kilogrammes of tobacco per month. This expansion directly supports the NDS2 objective of increasing local value addition from about two percent to 30 percent, correcting a historical imbalance where Zimbabwe exported nearly 98 percent of its tobacco in raw form and lost significant downstream value.
The shift comes at a time when Zimbabwe’s tobacco production has reached historic levels. The 2025 season delivered a record 355 million kilogrammes, up from the previous high of 296 million kilogrammes, reinforcing the country’s position as Africa’s leading tobacco producer. While global rankings vary, the scale and consistency of production underscore the strategic importance of the sector to the national economy. Under NDS2 and the Tobacco Value Chain Transformation Plan, authorities are targeting the growth of the tobacco industry into a US$5 billion value chain by 2030, driven by processing, manufacturing and export diversification rather than raw volumes alone.
Regional market dynamics are further highlighting the implications of Zimbabwe’s evolving tobacco industry. Recent industry reports indicate that more than 75 percent of cigarettes consumed in South Africa are now linked to Zimbabwean tobacco, much of it produced during and after the COVID-19 period when supply chains were reshaped. The closure of British American Tobacco’s manufacturing plant in Heidelberg, South Africa, in January 2026, citing inability to compete with cheaper, high-quality products, illustrates how Zimbabwean-sourced tobacco has entrenched itself in regional markets. What began as a regulatory intervention in South Africa inadvertently strengthened alternative supply networks anchored on Zimbabwean production.
These trends reinforce the strategic logic of NDS2, which places value addition at the centre of agricultural transformation. By processing tobacco locally and expanding manufacturing capacity, Zimbabwe is positioning itself to retain profits, create industrial jobs and strengthen export earnings. As the NDS2 cycle gains momentum, tobacco is emerging not only as a leading agricultural commodity but as a test case for how policy, investment and production can be aligned to build a more resilient, export-led economy.
