Zimbabwe is entering 2025 with one of its most optimistic economic forecasts in recent memory. Treasury projects growth of 6.6 percent, the highest in decades, lifting nominal output to about US$52.3 billion from an estimated US$45.7 billion last year.
The revision follows an economic census earlier this year that sharply increased the country’s GDP estimates, from an initial projection of US$35.2 billion for 2025 to US$44.4 billion, before the latest upward adjustment.The data shows a broad base of activity across the economy. Agriculture, led by tobacco, is expected to make a strong contribution, supported by favourable weather and sustained demand. Mining remains a major driver, with gold maintaining robust international prices and other minerals such as platinum and lithium adding depth to the sector’s prospects.
Manufacturing has also surprised on the upside, with higher output reported as producers respond to domestic consumption and policy measures that encourage local value addition.The government argues that these results reflect more than cyclical trends. Treasury points to the effects of a streamlined system of levies and fees, measures to improve the ease of doing business, and closer alignment with opportunities created under the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Officials also emphasise that the structural review of the economy through the census has captured activity that was previously undercounted, suggesting a more substantial economic base than earlier assumed.In comparative terms, the numbers are striking. At US$52.3 billion, Zimbabwe’s projected GDP for 2025 exceeds the level recorded in 2017, when output stood at about US$51.07 billion. The step-up from 2024’s US$45.7 billion also signals a stronger recovery trajectory than had been expected at the beginning of the year. Growth of 6.6 percent places Zimbabwe among the faster-growing economies in the region, although performance will remain sensitive to developments in commodity markets and agricultural production.
The projections highlight a country seeking to re-establish momentum after years of underperformance. Whether the strong headline figures can be sustained in the medium term will depend on consistency in policy execution, resilience in key export sectors, and the ability to convert output growth into broad-based improvements across the economy. For now, the data marks a clear upturn and provides one of the most confident forecasts Zimbabwe has issued in decades.
