Zimbabwe’s economic trajectory is gaining renewed regional and international recognition, with the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) projecting a 3.8% growth rate for 2025, placing the country among the fastest-growing economies on the continent. The forecast, captured in the latest African Trade and Economic Outlook report, credits the rebound to a combination of favourable rains, stable macroeconomic conditions, expanding mining operations, and improved export receipts.
This forecast not only adds to a growing chorus of optimism from multilateral institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank, but also signals validation of Zimbabwe’s ongoing fiscal and monetary reforms. Afreximbank’s projection comes at a critical time, offering a much-needed vote of confidence in Zimbabwe’s economic management amid persistent global shocks, regional uncertainty, and internal structural challenges.
One of the standout drivers of the projected growth is agriculture. A strong 2024/2025 rainy season has lifted expectations for bumper harvests—particularly in maize and tobacco—creating ripple effects across agro-processing industries, food security, and rural incomes. Complementing this is the mining sector, which continues to be buoyed by rising global demand for critical minerals such as lithium, gold, and platinum. Increased capital injection and the commissioning of new projects have provided a solid foundation for sectoral expansion.
The report also underscores Zimbabwe’s growing participation in intra-African trade, with the country ranked among the top 25 economies benefiting from cross-border commerce within the continent. This is especially significant in light of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), where Zimbabwe stands to gain more by enhancing industrial capacity and regional supply chain integration.
Commenting on the findings, University of Zimbabwe Business School Director, Professor Albert Makochekanwa, described the report as a clear endorsement of the country’s policy direction. He, however, cautioned that while the forecast is encouraging, it must be matched by consistent policy implementation, protection from economic shocks, and a focus on production-led growth.
Notably, the Ministry of Finance’s initial growth forecast for 2025 stands at 6%, but Treasury has hinted at a possible revision pending first-quarter performance reviews. Whether the 3.8% projected by Afreximbank becomes the baseline or the floor for an upward revision will depend on continued macroeconomic stability, fiscal discipline, and structural reforms.
In essence, Afreximbank’s outlook is more than a statistic—it is a signal that Zimbabwe is regaining economic credibility. What remains is for authorities to maintain policy coherence, deepen reforms, and channel momentum into lasting, inclusive development. If managed well, Zimbabwe’s 2025 could mark not just recovery, but meaningful economic transformation.
