The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has released its first national climate outlook for the 2026/2027 rainfall season, projecting a high chance of below-normal rains across most parts of Zimbabwe between October 2026 and March 2027.
In the outlook covering October 2026 to March 2027, the department said global climate drivers point to drier than average conditions, particularly during the first half of the season.
According to the MSD assessment, two major oceanic and atmospheric systems are influencing the Southern African region. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently in a warm phase and is expected to persist throughout the forecast period. At the same time, the Indian Ocean Dipole is in a positive phase and is likely to remain so until the end of January 2027, before shifting to neutral in February.
The combination of these two systems historically increases the probability of reduced rainfall over Zimbabwe and much of the region.
For the period October to December 2026, the forecast indicates a high probability of below-normal rainfall nationwide. This covers the critical early planting window for most farmers.
From January to March 2027, the pattern is expected to shift slightly. The southern and western parts of the country are projected to receive near-normal rainfall, though still with a tendency toward lower totals. The rest of the country is likely to continue experiencing below-normal conditions.
The MSD noted that while the outlook is based on large-scale global drivers, the actual distribution of rains will also depend on local and short-term weather systems that develop during the season.
Despite the overall expectation of a drier season, the department cautioned that the risk of severe weather has not gone away. Violent storms and flash floods can still occur even in seasons with poor total rainfall.
To that end, the MSD is advising government, farmers, local authorities and communities to take proactive measures now. These include water harvesting, proper irrigation planning, maintenance of drainage systems, and heightened public health preparedness.
“The public is encouraged to rely on the MSD’s continuous short-term guidance and regular updates, as the department will actively track evolving climate and weather systems throughout the season,” the department said.
The climate outlook is issued by the Ministry of Environment, Climate and Wildlife through the Meteorological Services Department, which is ISO 9001:2015 certified. The department says it will continue to monitor both global and regional climate signals and provide regular updates to support decision-making across all sectors.
Farmers and other stakeholders have been urged to use the seasonal outlook together with weekly and daily forecasts when making decisions on planting dates, crop varieties, water use and disaster preparedness.
